Terry's Blog
June 09, 2009
New Poll Numbers
We conducted a poll over the last three nights - with 200 interviews a night. We never base decisions on one night's worth of interviews because the sample is too small. But throughout this campaign our night-by-night numbers have been reliable and have picked up trends such as the recent increase in support for Deeds. I am encouraged that last night's interviews have us tied with Deeds.
McAuliffe: 33
Deeds: 33
Moran: 21
While this is not definitive, last night's trend shows this is a competitive race and we need to make sure that every vote counts and we need to make every effort to turn out our voters today.
Mark my words: we can win this thing tonight. There are three key things to take away from our polling research.
First, people want someone who shares their values on gun safety issues. Terry McAuliffe opposes allowing concealed weapons into bars and supports former Governor Doug Wilder's one-gun-per-month law. That message is resonating with this electorate.
Second, people want a candidate who can win. Brian Moran's numbers are flat. He's not within striking distance, and doesn't show any signs of upward movement. If voters want a candidate who can beat Bob McDonnell in November, Terry McAuliffe is the guy to do it.
Third, this race is remarkably fluid, and our field operation is making the difference. We've been polling for three nights, and based on our interviews last night, we're going to close the gap. Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen noted on Sunday that, "Voter preferences in this election are about as fluid as in any race PPP has ever polled… Usually voter preferences are pretty hardened by 48-72 hours before an election but if there was ever one where that could change this would be it."
It's true that there was serious momentum toward Deeds at the end of last week - and over three days, he has the lead. But we have every indication that voters have moved towards Terry at lightning speed within the last 48 hours, and that's thanks to your work. Staff and volunteers have made a combined 472,801 calls from Saturday through Monday. That doesn't count anything we've already done today.
We've got the momentum. But we need to keep it up. Tell your friends, family and neighbors to get to the polls. And come down to your local field office to make some calls in these final hours.
Click here to find your local field office.
If we keep the pedal to the metal until the polls close at 7 PM tonight, we will win this thing!
Mo Elleithee
Senior Campaign Strategist
Posted by: Mo Elleithee @ 01:36:53 PM
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“At meet-and-greets from small-town Leesburg to exurban Manassas to far-south Martinsville, he douses voters in an ebullient rain of proposals… McAuliffe’s ideas may be hard to beat.”
– The New Republic, 2/4/09
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“In the midst of a daunting travel schedule and after releasing truly ambitious business and energy plans for the Commonwealth, he still maintains an energy level that those of us ten years younger would be hard pressed to match.”
– The Loudoun Independent, 4/1/09
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“McAuliffe is rolling out a series of position papers on energy and business that go well beyond the typical two-page brochure full of bromides…his substantive pitches have raised expectations and pointed the way toward a different, more high-toned campaign.”
– Richmond Times-Dispatch, 3/25/09
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“Although many State House insiders were initially skeptical of McAuliffe, he has been running a nearly flawless campaign. Democrats and Republicans are taking him seriously.”
– The Washington Post, 1/22/09
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“Terry McAuliffe can get through to the (rural) culture. Like I said, he’s got a positive attitude. Terry’s also got high name recognition amongst Democrats who will vote in the primary. And McAuliffe is a good name to have out here where I live.”
– Dave “Mudcat” Saunders
Political strategist for Mark Warner and Jim Webb, 3/25/09 -
“Terry McAuliffe continues to impress – rolling out a detailed plan to revive the Virginia economy and picking up labor endorsements, the latest of which came from the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.”
– The Washington Post, 4/3/09
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“He brings a kind of energy and visibility and presence that’s just extraordinary.”
– Bob Holsworth, professor at VCU, 2/4/09
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